The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders hope to finish the year on a positive note. With no economical data releases today, we are likely to see trading limited to a small range. It is very likely that the FTSE will end this memorable year on a positive note.
Oil which is currently trading around the 39 dollars per barrel level, heading for a record annual drop, on speculation that U.S. fuel stockpiles are increasing as the recession cuts demand. While OPEC has announced that they will be cutting supplies aggressively, traders are taking the wait and see approach. The price of oil will probably stay in a tight range today.
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The FTSE currently indicates a weak opening, as traders wait for the release of the UK Industrial production numbers. This data should give analysts some hints on the condition of the industrial sector and if the interest rate cuts are going to stimulate the struggling economy. The FTSE is likely to start Tuesday morning in the red.
Oil prices firmed up yesterday as OPEC spread the news that they will be cutting output at the next meeting. While it is not known how much will be cut, it will take a significant cut to bring oil prices back to a decent level. It is likely that oil prices will continue to rise, but stop around the 45 dollar per barrel level.
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The FTSE is currently indicating a weak opening, as traders wait for the release of the US non farm payroll report. While this economic data is not from UK, it is significant enough to have traders from both sides of the ocean pay close attention. Analysts are expecting the NFP to show the worst job loss in more then 25 years. The FTSE will most likely end this week on a sour note.
Oil tumbled past the 45 dollar per barrel mark yesterday, as the economic contraction and record job losses world wide has forced consumers to cut back on their fuel consumption. Oil lost 19 percent of its value this week, which coincided with the declaration of a recession in UK and US. We believe that oil should try and break the 40 dollar mark, but that's probably going to have to wait until next week.
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The FTSE is currently indicating a flat open, as traders wait for the interest rate decision by the Bank of England. While a 100 basis point cut is all but assured, there are some analysts who are predicting the BOE will surprise everyone again and cut 150 basis points, this would push the FTSE into positive territory but would be disastrous for the British Pound.
Crude oil continues its free fall, as the longest economic contraction since World War II has slashed demand worldwide. Oil currently trades just under 47 dollars per barrel, as lack of production cuts by OPEC and falling demand from consumers has resulted in an oversupply situation. Oil should settle nicely around 45 dollars per barrel by the end of the week.
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Markets are down today as US ADP employment report confirmed what many Americans are already experiencing; the number of people in private employment is falling. Like readily available credit, jobs are being squeezed on both sides of the Atlantic. Corporate layoffs also surged to a near 7 year high as the omens for the Friday’s big US employment report appear grim. Markets have managed to hold on to most of yesterday’s gains though as bad news about the economy is starting to be priced in. Today’s job numbers were at the lower end of estimates, but they could have been a lot worse.
Resource and energy stocks are under pressure as crude prices continue to slide. Oil prices made a century of sorts today, at $47, oil prices have now fallen exactly $100 from their peak in July. The decline is all the more remarkable when you consider the fact that oil started the year under $100. Oil majors such as BP, Shell and Exxon Mobil have managed to hold up relatively well of late though. The divergence between oil prices and oil majors may possibly be a function of oil producers being able to extract good margins as the price at the pumps hasn’t fallen to the same by the same severity as the price of crude.
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Markets are on the advance today with US markets pushing global equities higher. It is difficult to ascribe a definitive reason for today’s buying and it would be easy to fall into the trap of finding a story that fits. A rebound from a sell off that went too far yesterdays is a likely contributor as are the noises from central governments that they may be willing to go further to help their ailing economies. Whatever the reason for today’s rally, investor’s a grateful that last week’s gains haven’t been wiped before the end of Tuesday.
Tesco is one of the biggest gainers today in the UK after announcing better than expected sales figures. Traders are impressed with Tesco’s flexibility in being able to compete against both the discount and higher cost super markets. Analysts had feared that discounters Aldi and Lidl would seriously dent Tesco’s earning potential, but the Cheshunt Giant has shown that it can adapt to the new competition and challenging market environment.
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The FTSE is currently indicating a slightly weaker opening, while traders wait for the release of the of the UK purchasing managers index. Analysts are concerned that a weaker then expected number could be just the thing to continue the sell off that saw the FTSE shed more then 5%.
Oil prices have lost more then 10% of its value since OPEC has decided not to cut production during the weekend meeting. Some worry that by the time the next meeting rolls around oil prices will be below the 40 dollars per barrel mark. For today oil should stay above the 45 dollar mark.
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The FTSE currently indicates a flat opening, as traders wait for the release of the US ISM numbers before deciding the tone for the week. This could be a quiet week for the FTSE as there will be no economic data in UK except for the consumer confidence report on Wednesday. We could see a higher opening today if the Euro-Zone retail sales numbers come out better then expected.
Oil traders were burned this week after OPEC decided to surprise everyone by not cutting output during the weekend meeting. Oil dropped below the 55 dollars per barrel mark and it is very likely that crude will be trading below the 50 dollar level by the end of the week.
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The FTSE is indicating a lower opening, as traders await to see the release of the EU employment data. While its not UK data, with the EU being a huge trading partner, a slowdown there could mean harder times for the UK. The way the FTSE opens today is totally dependant on that report.
Oil is on the weaker side of things again, as concerns that OPEC will not cut enough production to offset lower demand has traders dumping the futures contract. Crude oil is trading down 63% since its all time high reached on July 11th. Oil prices will be fluctuating wildly today as traders position themselves before the OPEC announcement.
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With US markets closed for thanksgiving, European equities are enjoying a relatively quiet session. In fact, the FTSE 100 is currently trading within its tightest range since the end of September. Credit markets are continuing to unfreeze and the VIX Volatility index yesterday closed below its 50 period moving average for the first time since the start of September. Implied volatility levels remain high but at least there are signs of calm creeping into equity markets.
Recent events in India have so far failed to have too much of an impact of equities, with most European stocks moving little after this mornings opening flurry. It is worth noting the muted reaction in gold prices at this time. Gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven in troubled times, yet despite the traumatic events in India Gold has barely moved at all over the last couple of days. With the implied risk of world governments defaulting on their bonds increasing, one would also have expected gold prices to increase as investors seek out safe havens for their assets. There are many factors affecting the price of gold, not least the strength of the dollar, but perhaps today’s lack of reaction is another indicator that volatility is set to decrease further as we approach the last month of a tumultuous year. Just last week, 2008 was set to be the worst year on record for many markets. Although this year will undoubtedly go down in the history books no matter what happens from here, there is a chance that it won’t end as it began.
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